China is intensifying its diplomacy over the war with Iran, by presenting a five-point proposal alongside Pakistan, garnering support from Gulf countries and opposing a United Nations proposal to use any necessary force to open the Strait of Hormuz. This is the latest push for China to assume a more prominent role in global affairs, although it may be more rhetorical than substantive, as the United States does not seem interested in Beijing's efforts. “The war with Iran is the priority of all countries inside and outside the region,” explains Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a research center based in Washington. China also maintains a large strategic oil reserve. Although China has positioned itself to cushion short-term impacts, analysts point out that Beijing is concerned about a prolonged war and has an interest in trying to end it. “An escalation of the conflict will begin to harm Chinese interests,” indicated Russel. He told Iran that China valued its friendship, urged Israel to cease military actions, and expressed that China would be willing to play a role in seeking peace. Last week, Wang received his Pakistani counterpart in Beijing to finalize their five-point proposal, which calls for an end to hostilities and the reopening of the strait. Wang has held more than 20 phone calls with foreign ministers from the region, and a special envoy has visited several countries in the area with the aim of promoting peace and reducing tensions, stated Liu. The Chinese foreign minister sought backing for China's plan from the EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, and told her it represented a “broad international consensus,” reported the Chinese Foreign Ministry. “It is an opportunity that China will not pass up to demonstrate its leadership and diplomatic initiative.” Danny Russel, a former top U.S. diplomat, described China's diplomacy as “performative” and compared the five-point proposal to end the war with Iran to its 12-point plan for Ukraine in 2023, which was “full of platitudes but never acted upon accordingly.” “Their narrative is that while Washington is reckless, aggressive and indifferent to the cost to others, China is a principled and responsible champion of peace. What we are seeing from China is messaging, not mediation,” said Russel, distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “China has been working tirelessly for peace” since the outbreak of the war, stated Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington. How does the U.S. view China's diplomacy? The Trump administration seems to have little enthusiasm for the possibility of Chinese mediation, according to U.S. officials. The U.S. is disappointed with third-party mediation efforts and has little interest in boosting China's international stature or giving it a chance to claim a success in the Middle East, said three U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about potential diplomatic options. One of the officials described Washington's stance on the China-Pakistan effort as “agnostic,” without support or rejection, but all three emphasized that could change if President Donald Trump intervenes before his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. For Beijing, there could be an incentive for the war to subside before Trump travels to China in mid-May. “Because China's growth model depends heavily on exports, prolonged energy shocks and disruption of maritime transport will mean more costly inputs and weaker global demand, which will damage its vulnerable economy,” said Ali Wyne, senior adviser for research and defense on U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group. In addition to not wanting to see a long war, China “welcomes the opportunity to suggest it is helping to mitigate a crisis caused by the United States, especially as it becomes more evident that the Trump administration lacks a well-thought-out strategy to contain the fallout,” noted Wyne. China has embarked on a wave of diplomacy After the war began, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with his counterparts from Russia, Oman, Iran, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Trump told NBC News that would not affect negotiations with Iran, just days after declaring in a national address that the United States has “defeated and completely crushed Iran.” Beijing calculates the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz For now, China is better protected than other countries from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, as it has diversified its energy sources and reduced its dependence on fossil fuels. China depends on Iran for only about 13 percent of its oil imports, and Beijing is working with Tehran to allow flagged Chinese vessels to pass through this crucial maritime route, where Iran's suffocating control has driven up energy prices. Wang stated that the actions of the UN Security Council should help alleviate tensions “rather than endorse illegal acts of war, let alone add fuel to the fire.” China and Russia argued that the United States and other countries could use a UN-backed mechanism to escalate the deadly war, according to a UN diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. Both countries seem to have a less immediate need to see the strait fully open. Citing the demands of the war, Trump postponed the trip, initially scheduled for late March. “There is no guarantee that Trump will not delay the trip to China again if the war intensifies,” said Sun. The war saw a major escalation on Friday, when Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft, a first since the conflict began five weeks ago. The vote was postponed until next week. To solve the strait problem, China insists that a ceasefire is needed. Wang told his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, that stopping the fighting was the most urgent matter. Wang also spoke this week with Bahrain's Foreign Minister, Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, to explain why China opposed Bahrain's UN proposal to allow the use of military force to open the Strait of Hormuz. While China has been able to pay for some of its ships to pass, Russia is benefiting from the high price of oil, its main export. Hoping to avoid a veto, Bahrain significantly weakened its proposal to authorize defensive — but not offensive — actions to ensure vessels can transit the strait safely. But its plan with Pakistan has been met with mostly silence from the United States. One of the U.S. officials said the plan is hard to assess because it is less a roadmap to peace than a vague call to respect international law and the importance of diplomacy and the role of the UN.
