European leaders are remarkably candid in diagnosing their own political and economic problems, though, unfortunately, they are not very adept at solving them. However, when they travel to China, they find that many of their self-critical remarks are directed back at them, but in a louder and harsher tone.
Europeans endlessly discuss how to avoid falling into the trap between the United States and China. For many in China, this seems unnecessary, as they already see Europe as America's 'pawn'. In this context, a researcher from Fudan University wrote in a recent article that 'Europe is truly unable to free itself from America to become independent'.
Europeans are obsessed with their competitiveness, and in China, many find this ridiculous. Europe simply lacks the necessary strength to face the challenges in many technological fields, according to the Chinese newspaper 'Economic Daily'. As for the challenges facing European unity, Europeans love to look at themselves, while in China, critics go even further.
'The survival of the European Union until 2035 is doubtful,' said academic Zhang Weiwei in a television interview last September. These are just public comments. In private circles, according to sources, the views of Chinese scholars are often sharper. One adviser compares Europe to an 'old courtesan' who cannot accept that she has been abandoned by her American 'emperor'. Another says that 'Europe hates innovation'. This disdain sometimes seeps into official affairs. A European trade representative reported that during a recent visit to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he was received with a severe reprimand, and he believed it was for entertainment.
The analysis that Europe is weak and divided is not entirely wrong, but the Chinese perspective tends to portray Europe's challenges in an extremely cartoonish way. This leads to two errors in China's approach to Europe. The first is the assumption that Europe largely follows America's lead. Over the past few years, many Chinese analysts, if not all, have applied this view to the war in Ukraine, seeing the conflict as essentially a struggle between America and Russia. From this perspective, Europe seeks peace and stability, while America wants to prolong the war at minimal cost to weaken Russia, with little thought to why most European leaders see the war in Ukraine as a direct threat.
Another example is the Dutch government's decision to control 'ASML', a Dutch company specializing in the manufacturing of semiconductors. The Dutch can claim they acted on their own to confront threats to their economic security. However, Chinese observers do not believe this. A small country daring to take such a bold step must surely be carrying out America's orders.
The second error is the belief that China somehow offers Europe a way out of its problems. Chinese researchers well understand Europe's long-standing quest for 'strategic autonomy'. They see that Europe, like any rational middle power, wants to find a balance between China and America.
In recent weeks, China's Ministry of Commerce has talked about resuming trade negotiations, and it seems it has not abandoned the investment agreement that was suspended in 2021 over disagreements about China's actions in Xinjiang. To some extent, the Chinese have reason for this, as they can always find some European interlocutors who praise them by proposing the possibility of 'mutually beneficial cooperation'.
However, this desire to make deals reveals an insufficient understanding of how important China's economic model is to Europe. In just the last few years, trade relations between Germany and China have shifted from a state of balance to a huge deficit expected to exceed $100 billion this year. European companies that have long benefited from the Chinese market now see it as their strongest competitor.
Although China's rare earth export control system was a response to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war, it was just as harmful to European companies as it was to American ones. This was a lesson for Europe on the risks of relying on China.
The situation is escalating diplomatically. In June of last year, the European Union canceled an economic dialogue with Beijing due to a lack of progress in trade disputes. In October, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas postponed a visit to Beijing when he was not offered the usual high-level meetings. On the other hand, the Chinese were displeased that Maas used a speech in Japan to criticize China's 'increasingly aggressive' behavior in Asian waters. European officials in Beijing reported that the Chinese Foreign Ministry took the unusual step of rejecting diplomatic initiatives or requests for official meetings.
One European representative stated that China is tired of European threats and feels it can ignore them.
In reality, China sees no reason to worry about the deterioration of its relations with Europe. It appears that political leaders in Beijing are confident that they have already defeated Trump in the trade war and believe that defeating Europe will be easier.
Furthermore, China has extensive experience in strengthening ties with individual European countries to weaken their cohesion as a bloc. Currently, China has identified Hungary, and increasingly Spain, as two countries particularly receptive to Chinese investment.
Moreover, even when Europe takes action, as in the case of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, it remains constrained by its deep commitment to rules. The bureaucrats in Brussels do not scare the decision-makers in Beijing.
Is China at risk of miscalculation? As long as the war in Ukraine continues and China remains a supporter of Russia, the chances of improving EU-China relations are limited. At the same time, European views on trade are evolving rapidly. The continued rise in Chinese exports could eventually lead Europe to take more measures—some of which could be aggressive—to counter this threat. If that happens, it will be proof of Europe's resilience. But Beijing, convinced that America makes the decisions, may continue to overlook the important point: this time, when Europe gets angry, it will be on its own terms.
